Ana SayfaANALİZ-MetalsMarket Alüminyum Yorumu----

ANALİZ-MetalsMarket Alüminyum Yorumu

28 Mart 2017 - 12:58 borsagundem.com

MetalsMarket ( http://www.metalsmarket.net/ ) Baş Metal Analisti
Anıl Ceyhan Tarafından Hazırlanan LME Video Yorumu:
"Aluminum is up 14% this year, trading above 1.900$/ton, close to
two year highs, even though China increased its production levels
massively and created excess capacity. China indulged in aluminum
production after 2010, which carried LME stocks to around 5.5 million
tons in 2014. Luckily more than half of that excess capacity had been
absorbed by capacity closures on low prices and slid to just below 2
million tons as of 2017.
There is still a lot of aluminum in the global market as China
keeps boosting producing the light metal. China has lifted its share
of global aluminum production from 12% in 2000 to more than 50% in
2017. The International Aluminum Institute's (IAI) latest figures
showed that China produced 54.4% of the global total in February.
And yet how can we justify the price rise that started at the
start of 2016 from 1.440$/ton and reached above 1.900$/ton in 2017.
1. The US has launched a broad complaint about Chinese aluminum
subsidies with the World Trade Organization, while the Aluminum
Association has filed a petition seeking anti-dumping duties on
aluminum foil. The world is tired of China's unfair competition and
will try to bite from its rising share in the world market.
2. In China, significant production curbs are expected next
winter due to anti-pollution measures. Over the winter from
mid-November to mid-March local aluminum producers must cut capacity
by 30% due to Beijing's anti-pollution measures. This requirement
applies to the light metal producers located around the capital and
risks about 1.5 million tons of production. Chinese government is
taking these environmental issues very seriously on the search for
"blue skies" goal! This is clearly creating a new level of
uncertainty in the world's largest supplier of aluminum.
3. Huge amount of capacity went offline in China in February.
According to IAI, annualized output dropped by 1.7 million tons in
February, relative to January. This figure seems a bit vague tough.
Indeed, largest monthly difference in production in the rest of the
world over the 10 years was a drop of 584.000 tons in January 2012
during a period of falling prices and massive capacity closures.
Now under the strong price environment new capacities are coming
on line and restarts are underway. This complies with an increase in
Chinese production by more than 900.000 tons between November 2016 and
February 2017.
It would be a complex issue assessing the direction of aluminum
prices this year. A trend setting development would be the
implementation of an extra 20% tax on imported goods to the US, a part
of president trump's "Great America" plan. As it is known light metal
is highly used in the UA automotive and aerospace industries. "

https://files.acrobat.com/a/preview/fa1f9c13-81db-4dc1-acaa-d10332d652c1

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Foreks Haber Merkezi ( [email protected] )
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